Jelang Pilgub Jambi, Lampu Kuning Elektabilitas Petahana Menyala

sekitarjambi.com – Kota Jambi, Kurang dari enam bulan ke depan, Pemilihan Kepala Daerah Serentak akan dilaksanakan di sembilan provinsi, 224 kabupaten, dan 37 kota. Jambi menjadi salah satu Provinsi yang menggelar pesta demokrasi tersebut.

Untuk melihat perilaku pemilih dan peluang elektoral terkini dari masing-masing bakal calon Gubernur Jambi, empat lembaga survei lokal telah melakukan survei opini publik. Hasilnya, dari empat rilis lembaga tersebut sang petahana Fachrori Umar gagal puncaki klasemen, dan selalu kalah oleh kader Golkar yang bakal turut maju dalam pemilihan Gubernur Jambi.

Di awal tahun 2019 lalu, lembaga survei Idea Institute merilis calon petahana di posisi tiga dengan angka 5,3 persen. Di awal Desember tahun 2019, lembaga survei Charta Politika menempatkan bakal calon Gubernur Jambi Syarif Fasha di puncak dengan angka 16,0 persen mengungguli bakal calon petahana Fachrori Umar di posisi tiga dengan angka 10,4. Sedangkan dua kader Golkar Cek Endra dan Al Haris mengikuti urutan dari belakang.

Di akhir Januari, lembaga survei Aksara Data Research Center telah merilis hasil surveinya. Bakal Calon Gubernur Jambi Syarif Fasha masih bertengger di posisi atas dengan angka 24,21 persen. Sedangkan posisi calon petahana berada di posisi lima di angka 4,27 persen di bawah dua kader Golkar Al Haris dan Cek Endra. Yang terbaru di akhir bulan Februari, hasil survei Indikator Politik Indonesia menempati posisi calon petahana di posisi empat dengan angka 11,7 persen, diungguli tiga kader Golkar.

Pengamat politik yang juga akademisi Universitas Jambi Dori Efendi mengatakan, temuan hasil empat lembaga survei tersebut menunjukkan sang petahana berada dalam posisi kurang menguntungkan dari segi elektabilitas. Selain itu, jelang masa pemilihan yang sebentar lagi dihelat, akan menjadi masa-masa tidak mudah bagi petahana untuk mempertahankan tampuk kursi BH 1.

“Biasanya kalau petahana itu bagus elektabilitasnya. Namun untuk di Jambi ini layaknya menjadi fenomena. Belum adanya kebijakan politik yang menyentuh masyarakat, salah satu efek dari rendahnya elektabilitas beliau,” ujarnya kepada sekitarjambi.com.

Pria jebolan Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia ini menambahkan jika ingin elektabilitas membaik, tim pemenangan calon petahana diharuskan untuk bersikap serius dan total lagi. Belum lagi masih melekatnya bayang-bayang Gubernur terdahulu seperti HBA dan Zumi Zola. Sebab, mereka berdua lah yang turut membawa Fachrori di kursi eksekutif hingga kini.

“Jika ingin menang dalam pertarungan, tim petahana harus bergerak. Kalau ingin menang, beliau harus punya popularitas lebih. Beliau juga harus punya kharismatik lebih dan saat ini masih di bawah bayang-bayang HBA,” pungkasnya.(Fa)

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